Cane Points: Crop Year 2016-2017 in Review (Part 2)

Part 1

Before plodding on to the current milling campaign, let's take a look at how the sugar industry fared last crop year. Figures used here are from the SRA presentation during the NFSP Annual Meeting at Casino Espanol, Cebu last August 15. Dates of reckoning are Week Ending July 30, 2017 for CY 2016-17 and Week Ending July 31, 2016 for CY 2015-16.

CY 2016-17 logged almost 28 million mt ton canes milled, higher by almost 20% from CY 2015-16's 23.35 million. The spike in cane deliveries off-setted the drop in yield, from 1.94 LKg/TC in CY 2015-16 to only 1.79 LKg/TC for CY 2016-17.

Raw sugar production increased by about 12% to 2.5 million mt. from 2.24 million mt in CY 2015-16. Raw sugar withdrawals increased by 3.5%, from 2.05 million mt to 2.12 million mt as of July 30, 2017.

As to refined sugar production, CY 2016-17 registered a drop of about 300,000 LKg (50 kilos) bags, from 19.1 million bags in CY 2015-16 to only 18.8 million bags. Refined withdrawals increased, from 16.33 million bags to 17.44 million bags in CY 2016-17.

Luzon's three refineries (Carsumco, CADP and CAT) combined for 4.4 million bags, up from 3.96 million bags in CY 2015-2016. However, withdrawals decreased from 3.86 million bags to 3.6 million bags.

Busco and Dasuceco in Mindanao refined 2.6 million bags, up from 2.28 bags. Withdrawals substantially increased, from 1.8 million bags to 2.74 million bags.

Negros refineries (Biscom, First Farmers, Lopez, Vicmico, Ursumco and Sonedco) combined for 11.72 million, down from CY 2015-16 output of 12.8 million bags. Raw withdrawals increased from 10.58 million bags to 11 million bags.

In Eastern Visayas, Hisumco recorded an increase to 97,840 bags from 89,319 bags, but withdrawals decreased from 85,450 bags to 82,952 bags.

SRA reports that the estimated ending balance of raw sugar as of August 31 is 393,936.6 million mt, broken down into A = 1,507 mt, B = 250,366 mt and D = 142,063 mt.

On the other hand, estimated refined sugar ending balance as of August 31 is 316,379.25 mt, bringing the total B raw sugar ending balance to 566,745.55 mt (250,266.3 mt B raw + 316.379.25 refined). If the volume of A and D sugar ending balance is added to the B raw and refined sugar ending balance, the total sugar ending balance as we start CY 2017-2018 is 716,315.85 mt.

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